Producer economics / October 21, 2026
U.S. Phosphate Producer Costs vs NOLA MAP
U.S. producers now make very little on a ton of MAP. In October 2026, the NOLA MAP barge price averaged about $814 per short ton. That is only $56 above our estimated cash cost to make MAP in Florida and deliver it to New Orleans. A year earlier, the gap was $236.
This FertiTrend graphic breaks the cost into five parts: sulfur, ammonia, rock, freight and conversion. Sulfur has grown from about a quarter of the cost to about half. Once fixed costs are added, we estimate producers lose about $40–70 per ton at Q3 contract sulfur prices.
At a glance
Key Takeaways
- NOLA MAP averaged about $814 per short ton in early October 2026. Our estimated cash cost to make MAP and deliver it to New Orleans is about $758.
- That leaves a cash margin of about $56 per ton, down from $236 in October 2025.
- Sulfur is now about half of the cash cost: $378 per ton of MAP, up from $138 (28% of cost) a year ago.
- With fixed costs added, we estimate MAP made in Florida loses about $40–70 per ton at Q3 contract sulfur prices.
- Mosaic plans to idle its South Fort Meade mine for more than six months. It cited the availability and affordability of domestic sulfur.
October 2025 → October 2026
What Changed in the Cost Build
Sulfur
$138 → $378 (+$240)The Tampa contract rose from $252 per long ton in Q3 2025 to a record $705 in Q3 2026. US Gulf spot roughly tripled. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted since late February.
Ammonia
$73 → $69 (−$4)Tampa ammonia was $555 per tonne in October, down from $590 a year earlier.
Rock
$137 → $147 (+$10)Model rock cost rose from $84 to $90 per tonne of rock, at 1.8 tonnes of rock per tonne of MAP.
Conversion
$102 → $127 (+$25)Model conversion cost rose from $112 to $140 per tonne of MAP.
Freight to NOLA
$37 → $37Unchanged.
Total cash cost
$487 → $758 (+$271)The NOLA MAP price rose only $91, from $723 to $814. So the cash margin fell by $180.
Cash cost vs reported results
Why Reported Margins Look Different
Cash margin
About $56 per short ton in October 2026: the NOLA MAP price minus the cash cost.
Fixed costs
Mosaic’s phosphate depreciation plus idle and unabsorbed plant costs were $104 per tonne sold in Q1 2026 and $137 in Q2. That is about $95–125 per short ton.
Full-cost margin
About −$40 to −$70 per short ton at Q3 contract sulfur.
Mosaic’s reported margin
Mosaic’s phosphate gross margin was $2 per tonne in Q1 2026 and −$4 in Q2, close to breakeven. Its costs lag the market: its sulfur cost was $522 per long ton in Q2, when the market was about $670.
What to watch
A six-month average of Tampa sulfur has tracked Mosaic’s reported sulfur cost within about $7 per long ton on average since Q3 2024. It points to about $676 for Q3 2026, which would push Mosaic’s reported costs up.
Sulfur sensitivity
What Lower Sulfur Would Mean
$ per short ton of MAP, at the October NOLA MAP price of $814
| Tampa sulfur | Change | Cash margin | Full-cost margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| $705 | No change from Q3 | $56 | −$40 to −$70 |
| $655 | $50 lower | $75 | −$20 to −$50 |
| $605 | $100 lower | $94 | $0 to −$30 |
Research notes
Method and Sources
ICIS: ICIS expects the Q4 Tampa contract to settle $50–100 below Q3 (Oct 13, 2026). It was still unsettled on Oct 16. Each $50 per long ton off the contract lowers the cost of a ton of MAP by about $19. Lower US Gulf spot sulfur would add a few dollars more. Even at $100 lower, the margin stays far below the $236 of a year ago.
Scope: MAP produced in Florida and sold at the NOLA barge market. Ton = short ton; tonne = metric tonne. Cash cost excludes depreciation, idle plant costs, SG&A and other revenue.
Method: FertiTrend US Phosphate Producer Cost Model. Each short ton of MAP uses 0.15 ton of ammonia and 0.53 ton of sulfur. Sulfur is 80% Tampa contract and 20% US Gulf spot, with freight, lagged one month. Ammonia is 80% Tampa and 20% gas-based cost. Fixed costs are from Mosaic’s phosphate segment.
Sources: Argus (NOLA MAP barge, Tampa ammonia, sulfur); EIA (Henry Hub); Mosaic quarterly performance data (Q2 2026) and WARN notice (Oct 5, 2026); ICIS (Oct 2026).