Supply and demand / October 28, 2026
U.S. Sulfate of Potash: Supply vs Use
The largest award in USDA’s new fertilizer program would build a sulfate of potash (SOP) plant bigger than all the SOP the U.S. imports. On October 22, USDA selected Intrepid Potash for about $139 million of proposed funding toward a $265 million, 220,000-ton SOP plant near Carlsbad, New Mexico.
SOP is a small market. The U.S. used about 357,000 tons in the 2026 fertilizer year. Compass Minerals’ plant at Ogden, Utah supplied most of it, and imports filled the gap. Put Intrepid’s plant next to Ogden, and U.S. plants could make about 138,000 tons more than the country uses. On our numbers, that would have been true in every year of the past decade.
At a glance
Key Takeaways
- USDA’s FIELDS program selected eight fertilizer projects for about $573 million of proposed funding. Intrepid’s SOP plant received the largest award, about $139 million.
- U.S. SOP use was about 357,000 tons in FY2026. Compass Ogden supplied about 275,000 tons and imports about 127,000. About 45,000 tons were exported.
- Intrepid’s planned 220,000 tons equal 1.7 times FY2026 imports and 62% of U.S. use.
- Ogden plus Intrepid would have exceeded U.S. use in every year since FY2016, by 110,000 to 191,000 tons. At 85% of Intrepid’s capacity, the excess is still 77,000 to 158,000 tons.
- Intrepid targets a final investment decision in late 2027. We do not expect first output before about 2030.
Market size
A Small Market With One U.S. Plant
FY2026, short tons of SOP product
U.S. use
357,000Apparent use: Ogden sales plus imports minus exports. No inventory data is published. Use ranged from 269,000 to 398,000 tons in FY2016–FY2026. California alone uses 46%.
Compass Minerals, Ogden, UT
275,000The only U.S. SOP plant. It makes SOP by solar evaporation of Great Salt Lake brine, so output depends on brine, water rights and the weather. Its sales ranged from 190,000 to 341,000 tons over the decade. Compass’s brine use is limited to 50% of its water right in calendar 2026.
Imports
127,000Germany 59,000, Belgium 32,000 and Canada 31,000 tons: 96% of the total. Imports swing with Ogden. They reached 174,000 tons in FY2022, when Ogden’s sales fell.
Exports
45,000Mexico is the largest destination, at about 20,000 tons in FY2026.
Intrepid Potash, Carlsbad, NM
220,000 plannedA $265 million plant. Capacity is based on current project plans. Intrepid has not disclosed the process or the grade mix. SOP would be a new product for Intrepid, next to its Trio and potash.
The arithmetic
Bigger Than the Imports It Replaces
Ogden sales plus Intrepid at full capacity vs U.S. use, short tons
| Fertilizer year | Ogden sales | Ogden + Intrepid | U.S. use | Over U.S. use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 Ogden’s best year | 341,000 | 561,000 | 398,000 | +163,000 |
| FY2023 Ogden’s weakest year | 190,000 | 410,000 | 269,000 | +141,000 |
| FY2026 Latest year | 275,000 | 495,000 | 357,000 | +138,000 |
Each row holds Ogden and U.S. use at that year’s actual level and adds Intrepid at full capacity. This is arithmetic, not a forecast. Before a single ton is imported, the U.S. would have more SOP than it uses, even in Ogden’s weakest year.
Market response
Something Has to Give
Imports
Fall first. California is the largest SOP market, and San Francisco is the largest entry point for imports. It is also the major import market closest to New Mexico by rail.
Compass
Ogden sells into the same Western markets. Compass can hold volume and give up price, or hold price and give up volume.
Exports
Whatever the U.S. cannot use has to leave. Even if imports stopped entirely, exports would need to roughly quadruple.
U.S. use
Lower prices could pull some use from MOP into SOP. But growers already use SOP where chloride matters most, so new demand is unlikely to absorb 220,000 tons.
Price
USDA projects its eight projects will lower potash prices by 5.3%. SOP is a much smaller market, so its adjustment is likely to be larger. Today, U.S. SOP prices reflect the cost of imports. With more supply than use, they would reflect what the extra tons can earn abroad.
Timeline
What to Watch
Oct 22, 2026
USDA selects Intrepid for about $139 million of proposed funding.
Late 2027
Intrepid’s target for a final investment decision. The plans remain subject to final engineering, the award process and grant conditions.
2028–2029
Construction, if Intrepid goes ahead (our estimate).
About 2030
Earliest first output (our estimate). New plants rarely run at full capacity in their first years.
Also watch
Ogden’s water position, and the grade Intrepid chooses. Water-soluble SOP would compete more directly with imports into California.
Commercial decision
What This Means
Importers
Imports keep their role until Intrepid starts. After that, the volume at risk is largest in California.
Compass
For the first time, Ogden would have a domestic competitor. Its weak years would no longer be filled by imports alone.
Retailers and growers
A second U.S. supplier means more choice and, likely, lower SOP prices after 2030. Longer supply commitments made before then should allow for it.
The grant answers the question of import dependence. It does not answer who buys the other 138,000 tons. If Intrepid builds, price will.
Research notes